USD/CAD REVIEW: created by import-candles on 2026-10-23 from Monorex history (digits 5 map); check digits/point_size/pip_size, then activate. US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar

Donald Trump says a prospective trade deal with Canada would include reviving Keystone XL, with Canada paying for construction, Reuters reports. This adds a pipeline proposal to Mark Carney’s earlier account of continuing negotiations. Canada has not confirmed those terms, and the route to reviving the cancelled project remains unclear. South Bow’s separate Prairie Connector proposal would use some existing Keystone XL pipe; its investment decision is due in 2027.

Mark Carney says Canadian and U.S. teams will keep working toward a trade deal in the coming weeks after a conversation with Donald Trump, The Canadian Press reports. Carney describes a prospective agreement that would support jobs and affordability while respecting Canada’s languages, culture and sovereignty. His statement signals continued negotiations ahead of the U.S. midterms; it does not announce a completed agreement or new tariff terms.

Canada’s dollar reached a six-week intraday high on October 30 as rising oil supported expectations of more Bank of Canada tightening, Reuters reports. It traded at 1.3955 per US dollar, up 0.2%, despite weak growth figures. Scotiabank’s Derek Holt said inflation risk mattered more to the forward-looking central bank. Investors priced roughly a 50% chance of a December hike. This is a dated Friday recap.

U.S. employment costs rose 0.8% in the third quarter, down from 0.9% in the prior quarter, InvestingLive reports. Wages rose 0.7%, while benefits increased 0.9%. Annual civilian compensation growth was 3.4%, with benefits growing faster than wages. Private-industry wages fell 0.6% after inflation over the year, showing that higher nominal pay did not preserve purchasing power.

The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28 in a 10 – 2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring a 1/4 percentage point increase. The statement describes strong economic expansion, resilient domestic spending and little change in unemployment. Inflation remains elevated, and the Committee says additional information will help determine the policy stance needed to return inflation to its 2 percent goal.

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on October 28. It projects inflation averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% in mid-2028, citing persistent energy costs and greater business cost pass-through. Growth has improved, but new U.S. tariffs are expected to slow activity in the fourth quarter. Governing Council said further increases could be needed, while stressing that uncertainty requires a careful approach.

InvestingLive reports that U.S. consumer confidence improved in October. The Present Situation Index reached 120.4, versus 111.8 previously, while expectations rose to 72.6 from 65.7. The prior headline reading was revised from 81.9 to 84.2. Conference Board economist Fergus McCormick linked the recovery to better business perceptions and easing gasoline prices, but said the longer downward trend persisted and consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods.

InvestingLive reports that September U.S. non-defense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft rose +0.5%, below +0.7% expected, following +1.6% previously. Orders excluding transportation increased +0.5% against +0.6% expected, after +0.3%. The report describes core capital-goods orders as a proxy for business equipment investment plans. It cautions that advance durable-goods figures are revised in the subsequent factory-orders report, with potentially significant changes in volatile categories.

InvestingLive reports that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa has not changed its negotiating position, although trade talks with Washington have intensified slightly. Carney attributed progress to the US moving closer to Canada’s stance. Semafor’s sources also challenged suggestions that an agreement was imminent, contrasting with weekend optimism from Kevin Hassett and Donald Trump. No agreement is confirmed in the report; the timing and specific tariff reductions remain uncertain.