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Review developments alongside their sources, alternative interpretations and price reactions.
EURUSD—
1 storyHigh impact only
Summary language English
Latest news
Oct 29
High impactBureau of Economic AnalysisOct 29 12:30AI thesis not measured

U.S. PCE inflation reaches 3.6% as real income falls

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · 12:30
Show on chart
AI · systemfrom 1 sources · updated at 19:02

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.6 percent over the year to September, while core PCE inflation was 3.1 percent, the BEA reported. Monthly prices rose 0.5 percent, outpacing the 0.2 percent gain in disposable income. After inflation, disposable income fell 0.3 percent and spending rose less than 0.1 percent. The release shows a squeeze on purchasing power despite higher cash spending. The next report is due November 25.

Related currencies / asset groups: USD

ThesisNo pair-specific direction statedAI · sourced

  1. AI interpretation: September’s price increases outpaced disposable income growth, squeezing purchasing power.

  2. The BEA reports September PCE inflation of 3.6 percent year on year and 0.5 percent month on month; excluding food and energy, prices rose 3.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

    Bureau of Economic Analysis

  3. September real disposable personal income fell 0.3 percent, while real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent.

    Bureau of Economic Analysis
Counter-thesisNo pair-specific direction statedAI · sourced

    What the market did AUDUSD · 1 min · ±30 min around the story

    extreme −7 pips30 min later −7 pips
    −10−5±0+5−30 min−150+15+30 min12:30 story
    Spread
    1.3→3.0 pips
    widened for 1 min after the story

    Ideas linked to this story sealed when published · the price writes the result

    No ideas are linked to this story yet.

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    Full calendar

    Sources

    90 days
    ReliabilityAvg. move after events
    Source reliability considers corrections, primary reporting and consistency with other sources. Price movement is the average absolute change in EURUSD around publication. The two measures are independent.

    AI thesis accuracy

    90 days

    Not measured yet.

    Alerts

    EURUSD news
    When a high-impact story breaksonce thesis and counter-thesis are ready
    ±15 pips within 30 min of a storyif the price reaction crosses the threshold