REVIEW: created by import-candles on 2026-10-23 from Monorex history (digits 5 map); check digits/point_size/pip_size, then activate. Euro vs Great Britain Pound
AI · systemEuropean Central Bank · 1 sourceImpact 3mixed
ECB holds deposit rate at 2.50% as energy risks deepen
The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged on October 29, leaving the deposit rate at 2.50%. It warned that a larger, longer energy shock is likely to raise inflation and weaken growth. Underlying inflation has remained broadly stable and wages have yet to show a material response, while tighter financing conditions could weigh on both inflation and activity. The Governing Council retained its meeting-by-meeting approach and made no commitment to a future rate path.
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The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged on October 29, leaving the deposit rate at 2.50%. It warned that a larger, longer energy shock is likely to raise inflation and weaken growth. Underlying inflation has remained broadly stable and wages have yet to show a material response, while tighter financing conditions could weigh on both inflation and activity. The Governing Council retained its meeting-by-meeting approach and made no commitment to a future rate path.
Counter view: Limitation: Tighter financing conditions are likely to weigh on inflation and growth; the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
AI · systemEuropean Central Bank · 1 sourceImpact 3mixed
Lagarde to leave ECB on 7 February 2027
Christine Lagarde will step down as European Central Bank president on 7 February 2027, the ECB announced on October 29. She informed the Governing Council and European Council President António Costa of her decision. The European Council will appoint her successor through the nomination process set out in Article 283 of the EU treaty. The announcement establishes the departure date while leaving the successor’s appointment for a later stage.
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Christine Lagarde will step down as European Central Bank president on 7 February 2027, the ECB announced on October 29. She informed the Governing Council and European Council President António Costa of her decision. The European Council will appoint her successor through the nomination process set out in Article 283 of the EU treaty. The announcement establishes the departure date while leaving the successor’s appointment for a later stage.
UK factory output accelerates, but costs stall hiring
Britain’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in October from 51.9, Reuters reports, confirming the flash estimate. The output index reached 53.6, its highest since September 2024, as domestic and overseas demand improved. The recovery has a cost: input prices rose at their fastest pace since June, and employment growth stopped. The survey predates the budget, so it does not measure businesses’ response to the new fiscal measures.
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Britain’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 in October from 51.9, Reuters reports, confirming the flash estimate. The output index reached 53.6, its highest since September 2024, as domestic and overseas demand improved. The recovery has a cost: input prices rose at their fastest pace since June, and employment growth stopped. The survey predates the budget, so it does not measure businesses’ response to the new fiscal measures.
Counter view: Limitation: the survey predates the budget and does not measure its effects.
More from the agenda 4Impact 2Italy’s inflation jumps to 5.4% as energy costs surge
Italian inflation accelerated to +5.4% in October from +4.2%, Istat’s preliminary estimates show. Prices rose +0.9% from September. Energy drove much of the acceleration, with regulated energy prices up +59.5% over the year. Goods inflation reached +7.5%, while services rose +2.9%. The harmonised measure climbed to +5.6% annually. The figures remain provisional.
Istat · 1 source · Oct 30 10:08 UTC
Open the storyImpact 2Euro-area growth beats forecasts, but France contracts
Euro-area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter, above the 0.2% forecast but slower than the previous quarter’s 0.6%, InvestingLive reports. The expansion was uneven: Germany grew 0.2%, Italy stalled and France contracted 0.1%. Ireland’s 5.5% surge was driven by multinational-dominated industries. Justin Low cautions that the headline surprise masks a fragile growth picture as higher energy costs pressure the region.
InvestingLive / ForexLive · 1 source · Oct 30 10:00 UTC
Open the storyImpact 1French household confidence drops to 80 in October
InvestingLive reports that French consumer confidence fell to 80 in October, below 85 expected, with the prior reading revised from 86 to 85. It describes the level as the lowest since 2013. Households reported worsening personal finances and living standards, while unemployment fears increased. The future-price balance rose to -7 points. These are survey measures of household sentiment and expectations, rather than observed unemployment or inflation rates.
InvestingLive / ForexLive · 1 source · Oct 27 07:45 UTC
Open the storyImpact 1Euro-area banks tighten business credit as loan demand falls
The ECB’s October lending survey reports tighter third-quarter credit standards for firms and consumer credit, while housing standards were unchanged. The net share reporting tighter business standards was 9%; the net balance reporting changes in business-loan demand was -6%. Higher interest rates were the main drag on demand. Banks expected further tightening in the fourth quarter and weaker housing and consumer borrowing, while several anticipated growing demand to finance AI infrastructure.
European Central Bank · 1 source · Oct 27 00:00 UTC