What Happens to Gold on Fed Days? 12 Real Rate Decisions, Measured
The Fed decides US interest rates eight times a year. We looked at the last twelve decisions, minute by minute, to see what gold really does on Fed day.
In the last twelve Fed rate decisions (June 2025 to October 2026), gold’s price two hours after the decision was about $0 to $144above or below its starting price. In 11 of the 12, gold’s high-to-low range was bigger in the first hour of the press conference than in the half hour after the decision itself. The decision hour’s range averaged $57, against $17 in the same hour on other Wednesdays nearby.
On June 17, 2026, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. In the next two hours, gold fell $144. That is more than 1,400 pips. Why would “no change” move gold so much? We looked at the last twelve Fed decisions, minute by minute.
What a Fed day is
Eight times a year, a committee of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (the Fed), decides US interest rates. The committee is called the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). The Fed can raise rates, cut them, or hold them where they are.
| Time | Decision | Press conference |
|---|---|---|
| New York | 2:00 pm | 2:30 pm |
| UTC, summer | 18:00 | 18:30 |
| UTC, winter | 19:00 | 19:30 |
The decision comes out as a written statement. Thirty minutes later, the Fed Chair holds a live press conference and answers questions.
Our sample: twelve decisions from June 2025 to October 2026, with eight holds, three cuts and one hike. The textbook says higher rates make the dollar more attractive, and gold, which pays no interest, less attractive. Lower rates, the opposite. Let’s see what really happened.
The statement vs the press conference
Here is the surprise in our data. In 11 of the 12 decisions, gold’s high-to-low range in the first hour of the press conference was bigger than in the half hour after the statement. On average, the statement half hour moved gold $37 from high to low, and the first press conference hour $54.
On March 18, 2026, gold ended the thirty minutes after the statement only slightly lower: from 4887.48 to 4885.19. The first press conference hour then closed at 4848.73.
The decision itself is usually expected. What moves gold is often what the Fed Chair says about the future. In three of the twelve decisions (June 2025, April 2026 and October 2026), the press conference even turned gold the other way from its first move after the statement.
The message can matter more than the decision. The press conference starts 30 minutes after the decision, and it can move gold more.
When “no change” moves gold
That is why “no change” days can be the biggest. On January 28, 2026, rates stayed the same. The decision came at 19:00 UTC, because it was winter time. Gold rose $105 in two hours.
In June 2026, rates stayed the same again, and gold fell $144. Same decision, opposite moves.
Cuts, holds and a hike
Here are all twelve decisions. “2 hours later” is where gold was two hours after the decision, compared with its price at the decision.
| Decision day | Decision | Statement, 30 min | Press conf., 1 h | 2 hours later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-18 | Hold · 4.50% | $10 | $24 | −$17 |
| 2025-07-30 | Hold · 4.50% | $6 | $26 | −$33 |
| 2025-09-17 | Cut · 4.25% | $64 | $39 | −$24 |
| 2025-10-29 | Cut · 4.00% | $30 | $47 | −$49 |
| 2025-12-10 | Cut · 3.75% | $29 | $57 | +$37 |
| 2026-01-28 | Hold · 3.75% | $33 | $74 | +$105 |
| 2026-03-18 | Hold · 3.75% | $22 | $44 | −$45 |
| 2026-04-29 | Hold · 3.75% | $27 | $32 | −$0.49 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hold · 3.75% | $103 | $106 | −$144 |
| 2026-07-29 | Hold · 3.75% | $43 | $64 | +$0.13 |
| 2026-09-16 | Hike · 4.00% | $62 | $88 | −$87 |
| 2026-10-28 | Hold · 4.00% | $18 | $43 | +$35 |
Rate: the Fed’s interest rate after the decision, as listed in the economic calendar. Statement and press conference columns: gold’s high-to-low range in the half hour after the decision and in the following hour. Times: 18:00 UTC, or 19:00 UTC on December 10, 2025 and January 28, 2026 (winter).
Look at the three cuts. The textbook says lower rates should lift gold. But in two of the three, gold fell: −$24 on September 17, 2025 and −$49 on October 29, 2025. Only the December 10, 2025 cut came with a rise, +$37.
The one hike, on September 16, 2026, did follow the textbook: the rate went from 3.75% to 4.00%, and gold fell $87 in two hours.
The latest decision, on October 28, 2026, was another hold. Gold dipped after the statement, then ended two hours after the decision $35 above its price at the decision.
A cut does not guarantee higher gold. The textbook direction is a tendency, not a rule.
The whole hour
Now zoom out to the whole hour of the decision (18:00 to 19:00 UTC in summer). On Fed days, gold’s high-to-low range in that hour was $57 on average. In the same hour on other Wednesdays nearby, it was only $17. On Fed days, that hour moved more than three times as much.
Even the calmest decision hour in our sample, June 18, 2025 at $17, was almost twice its normal Wednesday hour ($9). The two biggest were June 17, 2026 ($110) and the hike on September 16, 2026 ($111). For the busiest hours on normal days, see When Does Gold Move the Most?
What to take away
- The message can matter more than the decision: watch the press conference, 30 minutes after the decision.
- “No change” can still mean a big move, up or down.
- A cut does not guarantee higher gold.
- In winter, the decision comes at 19:00 UTC; in summer, at 18:00 UTC.
Twelve decisions is a small sample: treat these results as clues, not rules. The next Fed decision is on December 9, 2026 at 19:00 UTC (winter time). Find it in the economic calendar next to the gold chart on SocialCharts, then watch the press conference half an hour later. Another big US event for gold is the monthly jobs report: see What Happens to Gold on Jobs Day?
Frequently asked questions
What time is the Fed decision?
At 2:00 pm in New York: 18:00 UTC in summer and 19:00 UTC in winter. The press conference starts 30 minutes later.
What is the FOMC?
The Federal Open Market Committee: the Fed committee that sets US interest rates, eight times a year.
Does a Fed rate cut make gold go up?
Not always. In our sample of three cuts, gold fell two hours later twice (−$24 and −$49) and rose once (+$37).
Why does gold move when the Fed changes nothing?
The decision is usually expected. What the Fed Chair says about the future can surprise. On January 28, 2026, a hold came with +$105 in two hours; on June 17, 2026, a hold came with −$144.
Which moves gold more: the statement or the press conference?
In 11 of our 12 decisions, gold’s range in the first hour of the press conference was bigger than in the half hour after the statement.
Find the next Fed decision
Open gold: the economic calendar next to the chart shows the date and time of the next Fed decision. Watch the press conference 30 minutes later.
Keep learning
Trading Legends · 1How Did George Soros Break the Bank of England on Black Wednesday?
Chart School · 3How to Identify a Trend: Swing Highs, Swing Lows and When Trends End
Gold Playbook · 2What Happens to Gold on Jobs Day? 5 Real NFP Releases, Minute by MinuteEducational content only, not investment advice. Trading CFDs and forex involves a high risk of losing money.